The easiest way to launch a $1B product - in year 1 - is to first have a $9B product trending toward $23B, and then sell a must-have accessory alongside it:
I?m estimating that at least 60% of iPad buyers will get one. Based on an estimate of 36 million iPads sold in 2011 and an average price of $48 (70% polyurethane and 30% leather mix), the total revenue for Smart Covers will top $1 billion this year.
I further estimate that with a very modest gross margin of 75% (average cost to produce of $12), the Smart Cover could contribute $777 million to Apple?s gross margins.
Until other innovative covers come to market (and they will), Apple is going to sell these to more than 60% of iPad buyers.? My anecdotal evidence at the pop-up store in Austin during SXSW was that everyone buying one for themselves bought a cover.? Only people buying them for others skipped it (and they were obviously not buying the iPads for friends or they would have splurged for the snappy cover).